Uncertainty Modeling

Numerical modeling of economic uncertainty

Representation and modeling of economic uncertainty is addressed by different modeling methods, namely stochastic variables and probabilities, interval analysis, and fuzzy numbers, in particular triple estimates. Fo-cusing on discounted cash flow analysis numerical results are presented, comparisons are made between alter-native modeling methods, and characteristics of the methods are discussed.

Fuzzy relations, Possibility theory, Measures of uncertainty, Mathematical modeling.

A central aim of educational research in the area of mathematical modeling and applications is to recognize the attainment level of students at defined states of the modeling process. In this paper, we introduce principles of fuzzy sets theory and possibility theory to describe the process of mathematical modeling in the classroom. The main stages of the modeling process are represented as fuzz...

Uncertainty of Climate Change and Synoptic Parameters and modeling the trends

Modeling of Epistemic Uncertainty in Reliability Analysis of Structures Using a Robust Genetic Algorithm

In this paper the fuzzy structural reliability index was determined through modeling epistemic uncertainty arising from ambiguity in statistical parameters of random variables. The First Order Reliability Method (FORM) has been used and a robust genetic algorithm in the alpha level optimization method has been proposed for the determination of the fuzzy reliability index. The sensitivity level ...

Considering Uncertainty in Modeling Historical Knowledge

Simplifying and structuring qualitatively complex knowledge, quantifying it in a certain way to make it reusable and easily accessible are all aspects that are not new to historians. Computer science is currently approaching a solution to some of these problems, or at least making it easier to work with historical data. In this paper, we propose a historical knowledge representation model takin...

Uncertainty Modeling of a Group Tourism Recommendation System Based on Pearson Similarity Criteria, Bayesian Network and Self-Organizing Map Clustering Algorithm

Group tourism is one of the most important tasks in tourist recommender systems. These systems, despite of the potential contradictions among the group's tastes, seek to provide joint suggestions to all members of the group, and propose recommendations that would allow the satisfaction of a group of users rather than individual user satisfaction. Another issue that has received less attention i...